On June 23, 2016, Britain left the European Union. Both those for and against Brexit (Britain’s exit) hotly debated for years the pros and cons of a break from the EU, sparking ongoing debates about nationalism, immigration and populism. As Europe reels from the already-emerging effects of Brexit, people wonder just what happened and what is to come for the future of Britain and Europe.
First, what is the European Union? The EU is the political union of 28 countries in Europe. BBC reports that, “It began after World War Two to foster economic co-operation, with the idea that countries which trade together are more likely to avoid going to war with each other.” So far, the EU seems to have lived up to its purpose; there have been no world wars since its formation in 1952.
Britain joined the EU in 1976, but it never completely joined as other countries did. Enjoying its sovereignty, Britain did not switch from the pound to the euro as 19 other countries did and attempted to keep its borders tight. Britain clearly expressed a desire to remain somewhat independent of the EU.
But the heated arguments that prevailed when Britain joined the EU have blown up extortionately in the last few years and months. A recent influx of immigrants awakened uneasiness in much of the population and those politicians who have supported Brexit for years began the campaign to decide Britain’s membership in the EU.
Sensing Britain’s malcontent, in 2013 David Cameron promised that if the Conservatives won the next election, he would hold a referendum to judge the country’s thoughts.
Although he remained a staunch opponent of Brexit from the start, Cameron stated that he would not deny British people a voice in this issue. He said, “I believe in confronting this issue- shaping it, leading the debate. Not simply hoping a difficult situation will go away.”
Flash forward to 2016. The referendum is on the table and is scheduled for June 23. The Leave and Remain campaigns have been debating for months now and people are starting to take sides. Early polls are almost evenly matched on each side and no clear majority is emerging.
Then, on June 16, a week before the referendum is to take place, Jo Cox is murdered by a man who declared in court as “My name is death to traitors, freedom for Britain.” Cox, a Labour member of the parliament, was a supporter of the Remain campaign and was a “vocal defender of immigration and diversity,” according to The New York Times.
Before her attack, Cox’s murderer allegedly screamed ‘Britain first,’ aligning him with Britain First, a fascist, far-right group which denies any connection to the attacker. Cox’s murder points to the growth of far-right anti-immigration, anti-Islamic groups which are increasing the consistency of attacks in the country. Brexit is now the most trending topic in the country.
A week later, the UK voted to leave the European Union with the slight majority of 52 percent of the vote. Almost immediately, the pound dropped to the lowest level its been since 1985. Britain was in chaos, Google results showing confused Britons looking up questions such as ‘What is the EU?’ and ‘What does it mean to leave the EU?’
Several voters started to regret their vote. One woman told ITV news, “Even though I voted to leave, this morning I woke up and I just- the reality did actually hit me. If I’d had the opportunity to vote again, it would be the stay.”
The next day, David Cameron, the Prime Minister of six years, stepped down from his position. After a passionate campaign to stay in the EU, Cameron announced his resignation, saying, “I was absolutely clear about my belief that Britain is stronger, safer and better off inside the EU…But the British people made a different decision to take a different path. As such I think the country requires fresh leadership to take it in this direction.”
So what happens now?
Theresa May, who replaced David Cameron as Prime Minister, is determined that “Brexit means Brexit.” Although a Remain supporter, she says that she will abide by the recent vote and carry the break from the EU through.
However, she has promised that the process won’t start for some time. Although the vote is final, the process of exiting from the European Union will not begin until Mrs. May submits Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. After Article 50 is submitted, it will take at least two years for the process to be complete. Some experts argue that it will be more like six years to get all the negotiations finished.
Mrs. May has appointed several top Leave campaigners to negotiate the exit. Known as the ‘Three Brexiteers,’ Liam Fox, David Davis, and Boris Johnson will spend the next several years mapping out the unknown territory of an EU exit.
Even as preparations are underway following the results of the referendum, many experts are concerned about the worldwide effects of Brexit.
Scotland, which voted overwhelmingly to stay in the European Union, is now expected to hold its own referendum to possibly leave the UK and join the EU as its own independent country. Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, says the possibility of such a referendum taking place is “highly likely.”
Several other countries are also expected to follow in Britain’s wake. France and the Netherlands are two such countries experiencing a rise in populist parties. Concerns have risen about the possibility of Frexit or Nexit. Many European leaders argue that Brexit will spark a domino effect in one after another powerful country leaving the EU, which could leave the bloc severely weakened and ineffective.
But Brexit won’t leave just the EU weakened; it might also leave London in a state of disarray. London is currently the hub of the European financial industry. New York Magazine remarks that “The biggest industry in the UK needs access to the common market in order to thrive….If Britain loses access to the common market, many economists predict reduced growth, a weakened pound, and a devastated city of London.”
The prediction of a weakened pound seems to have already occurred, but just a month after Brexit, the pound seems to have recovered almost completely. According to the BBC, “A report by the Bank of England, published on 20 July, suggested the UK economy may have, so far, withstood the shock of the Brexit vote. Most of the data was gathered before the result but intelligence gathered since 23 June vote showed ‘no clear evidence of a sharp general slowing in activity‘ despite an increase in uncertainty.”
Only a few weeks have passed since Brexit happened, so nothing is clear about how the UK will proceed with the process or what the effects will be on Europe and the rest of the world. Since the passing of this historic vote, experts agree that Britain will be venturing into the unknown for years to come.
