window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);} gtag('js', new Date()); gtag('config', 'G-GEQWY429QJ');

 

Entity explains the effects the election will have on the electoral map.

The 2016 election ignited a series of debates against both candidates, instilled fear in many citizens within our diverse culture and is now also changing the traditional electoral map. For those of you who think your vote won’t count in our political world, this election may push you to reconsider.

As November rapidly approaches, it has become imperative for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton to garner the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

As explained by Huffington Post, “The Electoral College is made up of 538 electors who cast votes to decide the President and the Vice-President of the United States. When voters go to the polls on Tuesday, they will be choosing which candidate receives their state’s electors.” These 538 electors are the sum of the nation’s 435 representatives, 100 senators and three District of Columbia electors.

Thus, a presidential election is a set of 51 contests, one for each state plus the District of Columbia. Each state has a different number of electoral votes – California, for instance, has 55 – and it takes 270 votes to win the election.

Entity explains the effects the election will have on the electoral map.

For 48 states, it is, as Constitution Daily writes, “a winner-take-all election within each state, with the winner getting every electoral vote.” The remaining two states, Maine and Nebraska, split the electoral votes. In Maine, two of the four votes go to the statewide winner while one vote per district goes to the winner in each of the two congressional districts. In Nebraska, two of the five votes go to the winner of the statewide vote while one vote is given to the winner of the state’s three congressional districts.

With this in mind, CNN published an article in May 2016 showing their “first look at the battleground map of 2016.” This map showed their predictions of how the electoral voting map will look like come fall. According to David Chalian, CNN’s political director, “Trump hopes to reawaken so-called Regan Democrats who once helped put states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio in the GOP column.”

Chalian wrote just four months ago that this “battleground map” will continue to evolve. According to him, “Just like the rest of this election season, it will be anything but predictable.”

He was right.

A recent poll of 74,000 registered voters conducted by The Washington Post shows that the “2016 campaign could flip several red and blue states from their longtime loyalties.”

Based on the map The Washington Post displays, there are now 10 “tossup states” or “swing states,” which are defined as states in which the “Democratic and Republican candidates both have a good chance of winning.” While 10 may not seem like a significant number, it can change the nature of the race, especially after considering which states are no being categorized as “tossup states.”

According to Dan Balz and Scott Clement of The Washington Post, “Trump is struggling in places Republicans have won consistently … These states include Arizona and Georgia, as well as Texas – the biggest surprise in the 50-state results.” Texas, as the 270 to Win website shows, has been a Republican state for the last 10 elections. Its last Democratic vote was cast in 1976 for Jimmy Carter.

Additionally, the article explains, “The massive survey highlights a critical weakness in Trump’s candidacy – an unprecedented deficit for a Republican among college-educated white voters, especially women.”

Despite this, the Republican candidate is close to winning Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, all states which Democrats have won in six consecutive elections.

As it stands, The Washington Post poll reports that Mrs. Clinton currently leads by four points or more in 20 states plus the District of Columbia. She leads by less than four points in Colorado and Florida, is tied with Mr. Trump in North Carolina and is trailing her opponent by two points in Mississippi. In total, her electoral votes equal 244, just 26 shy of the 270 she needs to win in November.

Mr. Trump, on the other hand, leads by at least four points in 20 states, but his states only add up to 126 electoral votes. This leaves 10 states, with a total of 168 electoral votes, where neither candidate has a lead of four points or more.

Entity explains the effects the election will have on the electoral map.

The Pew Research Center reports that the “strong support among Democratic candidate supporters is much lower among Clinton backers today (45 percent) than it was among Obama backers in 2012 (60 percent) and 2008 (58 percent) as well as Kerry voters in the summer of 2004 (59 percent).”

According to the research, many Clinton and Trump supporters simply “describe their choice as a vote against the opposing candidate … For the first time since the 2000 election, fewer than half of both candidates’ supporters say they back their candidate strongly.”

Perhaps this increasingly polarized environment could explain the changes happening within the Electoral College. Perhaps it just has to do with the candidates themselves. Nevertheless, despite the reason for these shifts in party support, the sentiments of CNN’s David Chalian ring true: This election is anything but predictable.

Send this to a friend